CNN : 2023년 언제 금리 인상 속도가 느려질까요?

 

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Fed watch 2023: When will rate hikes slow down | CNN Business

2023년 연방 시계: 언제 금리 인상 속도가 느려질까요?

 

<원문 1>

 

America’s central bank found itself in a glaring spotlight for much of this past year, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell wielded blunt tools of interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening to curb surging inflation. As 2022 draws to a close, inflation metrics show some of that may have worked: Consumer prices are cooling, home sales have ground to a halt, and some of America’s best-known companies have made plans to slow their roll and pull back on capital investment. The latest measure of inflation showed that the Consumer Price Index for November came in at 7.1%, down from the 40-year high of 9.1% hit in June; prices for used cars, lumber and gas — once poster children for the painfully steep price hikes — have come down; and housing prices and rents have also been on a downward trajectory. “This idea of peak inflation, which people have been talking about for most of the year, is starting to look like it’s valid,” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. “It’s just how quickly does that come down?” In a matter of weeks, the Fed’s Act II gets underway. The Fed’s recently revised script calls for the federal funds rate, the central bank’s benchmark borrowing rate, to move higher, but at a slower pace than in the past several months.

 

<해설 1>

 

미국 중앙은행은 제롬 파월 연방준비제도이사회 의장이 치솟는 인플레이션을 억제하기 위해 금리 인상과 양적 긴축이라는 무뚝뚝한 도구를 휘두르면서 지난 해 대부분 동안 눈부신 주목을 받았다.

2022년이 끝나감에 따라 인플레이션 지표는 그 중 일부가 효과가 있었음을 보여준다. 소비자 물가는 냉각되고 있고, 주택 판매는 중단되고 있으며, 미국의 가장 유명한 회사들 중 일부는 그들의 출점을 늦추고 자본 투자를 줄이려는 계획을 세웠다.

최근 인플레이션 지표에 따르면 11월 소비자물가지수는 6월 9.1%로 40년 만에 최고치를 기록했던 것보다 하락한 7.1%를 기록했다. 한때 고통스러울 정도로 가파른 가격 인상의 상징이었던 중고차, 목재, 가스 가격이 하락했고, 주택 가격과 임대료도 하락 궤도에 올랐다.

글로벌트인베스트먼트의 토마스 마틴 수석 포트폴리오 매니저는 "사람들이 일년 중 대부분 이야기해온 이 최고 인플레이션에 대한 생각이 타당해 보이기 시작했다"고 말했다. "그게 얼마나 빨리 내려오나요?"
몇 주 안에, 연방준비제도의 제2조가 시작됩니다.

연준이 최근 수정한 대본에는 중앙은행의 기준 차입금리인 연방기금금리가 지난 몇 달간보다 높아지지만 속도는 더 느리도록 요구하고 있다.

 

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<원문 2>

 

While the Fed has — finally — eked out some small victories in slowing the economy, after seven bumper rate hikes, the robust and historically tight labor market has remained a thorn in the central bank’s side. When the number of available jobs far outpaces those looking for work, wages can rise, which in turn could keep prices higher for longer. That means the Fed, with its “laser focus on the job market,” could be “continually hawkish” at the start of 2023, said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird. There are already signs that the labor market is softening: Quits and hires have edged downward, while layoffs have moved higher; continuing claims have grown to their highest level since February; and the number of jobs added each month has started to nudge slowly lower.However, a “structural labor shortage” remains a major headwind, Powell noted in December, attributing the lack of workers to early retirements, caregiving needs, Covid illnesses and deaths, and a plunge in net immigration. As such, employers are hesitant to lay people off, and other areas of the economy are showing such strength that those who are unemployed are able to get rehired quickly, Mayfield said. “This latent strength in the job market could be the reason that the Fed over-tightens,” he told CNN. “The rest of the economy, to us, is very clearly signaling slowdown, imminent recession. And when you see the Fed revising their unemployment projections up, revising their GDP growth number down, it seems that they agree.” He added: “So, I would hope that they would take their own advice and pause fairly soon.” The December projections showed a more aggressive monetary policy tightening path, with the median forecast rising to a new interest rate peak of 5%-5.25%, up from 4.5%-4.75% in September. That would mean Fed officials expect to raise rates by half a percent more than they did three months ago, when the Fed’s economic predictions were last released.

 

<해설 2>

 

연방준비제도이사회(FRB)가 마침내 경기 둔화에서 약간의 작은 승리를 거두었지만, 7차례의 범퍼 금리 인상 이후 견고하고 역사적으로 긴축적인 노동 시장은 중앙은행의 눈엣가시로 남아 있다. 이용 가능한 일자리의 수가 일자리를 찾는 사람들을 훨씬 앞지를 때, 임금은 상승할 수 있고, 이는 결국 가격을 더 오래도록 유지할 수 있다.

베어드의 로스 메이필드 투자전략 분석가는 "고용시장에 레이저 초점을 맞춘 연준이 2023년 초에 '지속적으로 매파적'이 될 수 있다는 것을 의미한다"고 말했다.

노동 시장이 연화되고 있다는 징후는 이미 나타나고 있습니다. 해고와 고용은 소폭 감소한 반면 해고는 더 높아졌고, 지속적인 청구는 2월 이후 최고 수준으로 증가했으며, 매달 추가되는 일자리 수는 서서히 감소하기 시작했다.그러나 파월은 12월에 "구조적 노동력 부족"이 주요 역풍으로 남아있으며, 근로자 부족을 조기 퇴직, 돌봄 수요, 코로나 질병과 사망, 순 이민의 급락으로 돌렸다.

이처럼 고용주들은 해고를 주저하고 있고, 경제의 다른 분야들은 실업자들이 빠르게 재취업할 수 있을 정도로 강한 모습을 보이고 있다고 메이필드는 말했다.

그는 "고용시장의 잠재적 강세가 연준이 과도하게 긴축하는 이유가 될 수 있다"며 "나머지 경제는 우리에게 경기둔화와 임박한 경기침체를 매우 분명하게 보여주고 있다"고 말했다. 그리고 연준이 실업률 전망치를 상향 조정하고 GDP 성장률을 하향 조정하는 것을 보면, 그들은 동의하는 것 같습니다."

그는 덧붙였다: "그래서, 나는 그들이 그들의 조언을 받아들이고 꽤 빨리 멈추기를 바란다."

12월 전망치는 중앙값 전망치가 9월 4.5%-4.75%에서 5%-5.25%로 상승하는 등 보다 공격적인 통화정책 긴축 경로를 보였다. 이는 연준 관리들이 연준의 경제 전망치가 마지막으로 발표된 3개월 전보다 0.5% 더 금리를 인상할 것으로 예상한다는 것을 의미한다.

 

<원문 3>

 

Policymakers also projected that PCE inflation, the Fed’s favored price gauge, would remain far above its 2% target until at least 2025. Further projections showed souring expectations for the health of the US economy, with Fed officials now predicting that unemployment will rise to 4.6% by the end of 2023 and remain at that level through 2024. That’s 0.2 percentage points higher than the 4.4% rate they were expecting in September and significantly higher than the current 3.7% rate. Based on projections from Fed officials and other economists, the pathway has narrowed for the desired “soft landing” of reining in inflation while avoiding recession or significant layoffs. “It’s been pretty impressive how well the consumer has held up over the past 18 months, and not pulling the rug out from under the consumer is pretty much how you get to the soft landing,” Mayfield said. “I think it’s a really, really narrow path, and the Fed’s tone [during its December meeting] doesn’t give me a lot of optimism that they can navigate that without hitting a recession. … If a soft landing is avoiding a recession altogether, then I think that’s a pretty tough task. If it’s a milder recession than recent history, I think that’s still in the cards.” When the Fed will meet in 2023 The Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank’s policymaking arm, holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. Over the course of two days, the 12-member group looks through economic data, assesses financial conditions and evaluates monetary policy actions that are announced to the public following the conclusion of its meeting on the second day, along with a press conference led by Chair Powell. Below are the meetings tentatively scheduled for 2023. Those with asterisks indicate the meeting with a Summary of Economic Projections, which includes the chart colloquially known as the “dot plot” that shows where each Fed member expects interest rates to land in the future.

 

<해설 3>

 

정책 입안자들은 또한 연준이 선호하는 물가 측정기인 PCE 인플레이션이 적어도 2025년까지는 목표치인 2%를 크게 상회할 것으로 예상했다. 연준 관리들은 이제 실업률이 2023년 말까지 4.6%로 상승하고 2024년까지 그 수준을 유지할 것으로 예측하는 등 추가 전망은 미국 경제의 건전성에 대한 기대를 악화시켰다. 이는 지난 9월 예상했던 4.4%보다 0.2%포인트 높고 현재의 3.7%보다 크게 높은 것이다.

연준 관리들과 다른 경제학자들의 예측에 기초하여, 경기 침체나 상당한 해고를 피하면서 인플레이션을 억제하는 바람직한 "연착륙"을 위한 길이 좁아졌다.

메이필드는 "지난 18개월 동안 소비자가 얼마나 잘 버텨왔는지는 꽤 인상적이었고, 소비자 밑에서 양탄자를 뽑지 않는 것이 연착륙에 이르는 방법"이라고 말했다.

그는 "미국 연방준비제도이사회(Fed·연준)가 12월 회의에서 경기침체를 겪지 않고 경기침체를 극복할 수 있다는 낙관론을 내놓지 않고 있다"고 말했다. … 연착륙이 경기 침체를 완전히 피하는 것이라면, 저는 그것이 꽤 어려운 일이라고 생각합니다. 최근 역사보다 완만한 경기 침체라면, 저는 그것이 아직 가능성이 있다고 생각합니다.

2023년 연방준비제도이사회가 언제 열릴 것인가.
중앙은행의 정책 결정 부서인 연방공개시장위원회는 매년 8개의 정기적인 회의를 개최한다. 이틀에 걸쳐 12명으로 구성된 이 그룹은 파월 의장이 이끄는 기자회견과 함께 이틀째 회의가 끝난 뒤 경제 데이터를 살펴보고, 금융 상황을 평가하며, 대중에게 발표되는 통화 정책 조치를 평가한다.

다음은 2023년으로 잠정적으로 예정된 회의들이다. 별표가 있는 사람들은 각 연방준비제도이사회 회원국들이 향후 금리가 어디에 떨어질 것으로 예상하는지를 보여주는 "점도표"로 알려진 차트를 포함하는 경제 예측 요약과의 회의를 나타낸다.

 

 

※ 위 글이 도움이 되셨다면 아래글 ↓↓↓ 구독 부탁드립니다.

 

 

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